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Weekend Update & Market Outlook 8/10/2025

Weekend Update & Market Outlook 8/10/2025

August 10, 2025

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30‑Day Outlook

Lean Bullish. The tape firmed up across large‑cap tech and small caps (SPY +2.5%, QQQ +3.7%, IWM +2.5% week‑over‑week), suggesting improving breadth and risk appetite into a macro‑heavy week. Near‑term catalysts (CPI/PPI/retail sales) introduce headline risk, but unless inflation data meaningfully re‑accelerate, trend remains higher with buy‑the‑dip likely to persist. Tighten risk on CPI day; otherwise I favor gradual upside over the next month.

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Headline: Lean Bullish Into CPI
Subhead: Options Trade Idea Included

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ChatGPT said:

Market Action For Last Week

(Week ended Fri Aug 8, 2025; comparing to Fri Aug 1, 2025 closes)

  • SPY: 621.72 → 637.18 | +15.46 (+2.49%).
  • QQQ: 553.88 → 574.55 | +20.67 (+3.73%).
  • IWM: 214.92 → 220.32 | +5.40 (+2.51%).

Upcoming Major Economic Reports and Potential Market Moving Events

Mon (Aug 11)

  • No top‑tier U.S. releases.

Tue (Aug 12)

  • CPI (Jul) – 8:30 am ET (BLS).
  • Real Earnings (Jul) – 8:30 am ET (BLS).
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jul) – 10:00 am ET.

Wed (Aug 13)

  • Business Formation Statistics (Jul) – 10:00 am ET (Census).

Thu (Aug 14)

  • Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30 am ET.
  • PPI (Jul) – 8:30 am ET (BLS).

Fri (Aug 15)

  • Advance Retail Sales (Jul) – 8:30 am ET (Census).
  • Import & Export Prices (Jul) – 8:30 am ET (BLS).
  • Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (Jul) – 9:15 am ET (Fed).
  • Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug, prelim) – 10:00 am ET.

Upcoming Major Stock Earnings Reports

(Times are U.S. Eastern and based on company IR/press pages & Investing.com; always subject to change.)

Wed (Aug 13)

  • Cisco (CSCO) — Post‑market (call 4:30 pm ET).

Thu (Aug 14)

  • Applied Materials (AMAT) — Post‑market (call 4:30 pm ET).
  • JD.com (JD) — Premarket (call 8:00 am ET).
  • Tapestry (TPR) — Premarket (call 8:00 am ET).

Fri (Aug 15)

  • Deere (DE) — Morning (earnings call 10:00 am ET / 9:00 am CT; results typically post earlier that morning).

30‑Day Outlook: Mildly bullish. Tech led again (QQQ +3.7% w/w) and small caps joined (IWM +2.5%), while SPY made fresh progress. Unless CPI/PPI surprise to the upside, momentum and improving breadth favor a continued grind higher; risk is event‑driven volatility around Thursday–Friday’s data.

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